RR1099 – Review of consequence model evaluation protocols for major hazards under the EU SAPHEDRA platform

To safeguard the public, predictive mathematical models
are used to estimate the potential consequences of major
accident hazards in order to inform risk based decision
making. For instance, these models cover release,
dispersion, fire and explosion of hazardous substances. It is
important that the performance and limits of applicability of
these models is well understood. Model evaluation is a
process that can be used to provide assurance of the
robustness of predictions and to guide improvements in the
modelling techniques. Consequence model evaluation has
been a significant area of activity for many years and there
have been several European initiatives on harmonisation
and evaluation.

This report describes work done within the ‘SAPHEDRA’
collaborative EU platform for evaluation of consequence
models. The overall aim of the platform is to derive a
commonly agreed model evaluation protocol for
consequence models and a series of example applications
based on well-established experiments. The work described
here is a review of existing model evaluation protocols with
recommendations for the structure and content of a new
evaluation method that can be broadly applied to models
used in risk assessment studies for hazardous materials.

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Article source: http://www.hse.gov.uk/research/rrhtm/rr1099.htm